Elections to the State Duma and Mobilization: Expert Explains Why Russia Must Be Pressured Into a Ceasefire Quickly
Political analyst Ruslan Bortnyk commented on the Czech president's statement that Ukraine has two months left for negotiations, arguing that Putin must be pressured further because Russia is expected to announce a new mobilization after the State Duma elections, Politeka reports.
He discussed this on his blog.
According to the analyst, Russia is currently somewhat constrained by its efforts to preserve domestic stability ahead of the parliamentary elections. After the elections, however, those constraints are likely to disappear. At that point, the Kremlin could announce an additional mobilization, which, he argues, would be intended to stretch the front line and begin preparations for a possible offensive toward Kyiv, as Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has previously suggested. In addition, Bortnyk says Russia could resort to more serious escalation involving nuclear weapons or other actions that currently alarm the Russian public.
"A frightened Russian society could decide not to vote for United Russia in the elections and instead support new political figures. That would not mean the collapse of Russia's political system, but it would complicate the management of domestic political processes. Therefore, after the elections, Russia may take such steps. The West understands this as well. That is why Trump and Europe will be in a hurry to achieve at least a ceasefire before September 20," Ruslan Bortnyk claims.
Bortnyk notes that Reuters and other Western media report that Putin intends to continue escalating the conflict, rejecting calls for negotiations or a halt along the current front line. He argues that strikes on Russian oil refineries have only strengthened Putin's determination to continue the war, as the Russian leader believes Russia will soon capture the entirety of the Donbas. At the same time, Bortnyk adds, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that further escalation could lead to a longer war and to Russia seeking to establish a larger security zone, or buffer zone.
"It does not appear that Russia has abandoned its objectives of occupying Ukrainian territory, destroying Ukraine's military capabilities, and eliminating its capacity for resistance. Moreover, there are Peskov's recent statements. I have said that Russia will declare this buffer zone to be a legitimate objective, and this may indicate the gradual development of military and political plans concerning all of Ukraine's border regions, including some regional capitals such as Kharkiv and Sumy. Russia does not currently have sufficient forces to achieve this, but the leadership is trying to convince Russian society that there is no alternative to war," Ruslan Bortnyk explains.
Note: This is a direct translation of the provided text. It reflects the claims and opinions presented in the original article and should not be interpreted as verified factual reporting.