Hawkish Diplomacy: Expert Assesses Whether the US Can Give Peace Talks New Momentum

Political expert and Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko said that the US has become more deeply involved in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia through new intermediaries, while the Global South is also becoming involved, reports Politeka.

He said this in his blog.

According to the expert, the President of Finland said that Trump had doubled his efforts to accelerate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and the US is indeed stepping up its efforts in this direction. As The Atlantic reports, he said, another negotiation track is being created through John Coale, the envoy for hostage and prisoner exchanges, who previously held talks with Lukashenko. He will work on normalizing relations with Russia in the spirit of the détente of the Cold War era. Hence, the expert notes, the US is also ready to ease certain sanctions against Russia, while the release of political prisoners is being discussed — in other words, efforts are continuing to find common ground.

“Moreover, the negotiation track has also been strengthened through CIA Director John Ratcliffe. The German newspaper FAZ reports that Ratcliffe flew to Moscow to warn the Russian leadership about the devastating economic and socio-demographic consequences, as well as the overall strategic defeat Russia would face if it continues to prolong the war against Ukraine. In other words, he presented a clear economic assessment. We are seeing a circle of hawkish diplomacy; through various channels, this dialogue is being restored,” Oleksandr Musiienko said.

He also said that The Atlantic reports that a meeting between the US, Ukraine and Russia could take place in Abu Dhabi in October, with mediators from the Global South also potentially involved. Egypt is currently being discussed, in particular in connection with a maritime corridor in the Black Sea for grain transportation, while another track concerns an energy ceasefire. In the expert’s view, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan should also be involved, along with a country from South Asia, such as Indonesia or India. He said this would create a powerful format and demonstrate the role of the Global South in the international relations system.

“If an energy ceasefire could be established and we could move step by step toward de-escalation, that would be in our interests. It would protect our economy and create room for further negotiations and for freezing the war. Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev is also calling for this, by the way. He says that the hostilities may not end quickly, but the only scenario he sees is a rapid cessation of hostilities and a freeze. He says he raised this issue with Putin. Whether Putin heard him or will take it into account remains an open question, but there will be some form of negotiating activity,” Oleksandr Musiienko concludes.