Moldovan Elections Are a Matter of Odesa – Political Analyst on the Victory of Sandu’s Party

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained that while pro-Russian forces did not manage to stage a comeback in Moldova’s parliamentary elections, President Sandu’s victory remains fragile—but tactically important for Ukraine, Politeka reports.

He shared his analysis in his blog.

"Note that despite all the efforts, the escalation, the tension, voter turnout was very low—just over 50%. Sandu’s result is weaker than in 2021. Her party lost 6 parliamentary seats. And although there is a potential majority, there is no constitutional majority. They need 67 deputies to form that. The fragmented, diverse opposition ended up with a comparable result," Bortnik notes.

Overall, he points out, the positive election outcome in Moldova was largely thanks to the diaspora. Domestically, the victory was likely narrow, making it difficult to fully shift the country’s direction. The opposition could unite, a few MPs might be bought over, and suddenly the political balance shifts. So even though a comeback of anti-liberal, anti-Western forces was avoided, the system remains fragile—with risks of protests, destabilization, provocations, and even attempts at armed uprisings.

"But this (Sandu’s party’s victory) allows us to stabilize the situation, because Moldova’s elections are a matter of Odesa. It helps us secure our rear, since Moldova has avoided the path of 'Georgianization'—though again, five MPs could be bought off, and that changes everything. Still, if the government stabilizes, it may be possible to increase pressure on Transnistria—Russia’s Achilles’ heel. Russia cannot effectively defend Transnistria, and its loss would be damaging for Russia in reputational, military, and resource terms, since there are still significant stockpiles of weapons located there," Bortnik argues.

So, the expert concludes, Sandu’s party’s victory is tactically important for Ukraine, but strategically, little has changed. Still, destabilization in Moldova would have led to nothing good.

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