“Russia’s tactics this season might be a little different”: expert explains where the Kremlin will target its airstrikes
Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained that previously Russia targeted either energy infrastructure, or the railway, or gas extraction facilities, but now — due to the scaling up of drone production — it strikes everything at once, reports Politeka.
He discussed this in his blog.
According to the expert, Russia has now massively intensified its air attacks on Ukraine, particularly targeting railways, gas extraction, and electricity infrastructure. He claims the peak so far was the October 5th attack, when Russia launched 496 drones and 32 missiles; eight missiles and 57 drones hit 20 different locations.
“I think Russia’s strategy and tactics this season might be a little different. They’ve targeted logistics before, and railroads — back in 2022. They’ve attacked energy infrastructure, mainly electric generation and transmission. Even in 2023, there was a three-day blackout during which even nuclear power plants were shut down. They’ve also hit gas production and distribution.
But now the situation is different in that Russia is systematically and consistently targeting all these areas at once. Drone production enables them to do this. It feels like Russia is trying to create three blackouts in Ukraine simultaneously,” Ruslan Bortnik says.
First, he explains, Ukraine has already lost 60% of its gas production. Second, the railway situation in Chernihiv and Sumy regions has become difficult due to massive strikes — and even before the war, Ukraine already lacked locomotives.
“And third — electricity. Yes, right now everything is functioning normally, God willing it stays that way, but the power system is currently relying on nuclear generation without serious backup capacity. Many flexible generation sources, like thermal power plants, have been destroyed.
Plus, there's dependency on Slovakia and Hungary — we’re now getting more than 50–60% of our electricity from these countries, even though Ukraine had been exporting electricity not long ago.
So Russia is trying to create three blackouts: an electrical blackout, a gas blackout, and a logistics blackout, specifically targeting the railways,” Bortnik concludes.
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