"Such a solution is hardly applicable to Ukraine": Expert explains what kind of peace Trump achieved in the Middle East
Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik assessed the outcome of Trump's peacemaking efforts in Gaza and explained whether such an approach is applicable to the Russia-Ukraine war and under what conditions, Politeka reports.
He shared his views in his blog.
According to the expert, the ceasefire in Gaza achieved by Trump is a temporary solution, which, at best, will last until the start of the Congressional elections — that is, sometime around the summer of 2026. In other words, he notes, this symbolic decision shows that Trump truly thinks only in terms of his own presidential term.
"Such a solution is hardly applicable to Ukraine. First, we are dealing with a near-direct confrontation between great powers. Second, Ukraine has extensive and painful experience with the Minsk agreements, which were essentially an attempt at such an approach — to achieve a political resolution through freezing the conflict. That is, first a ceasefire, then political decisions,” explains Ruslan Bortnik.
Moreover, he points out, Trump does not have sufficient leverage over all parties involved in the war — and it’s not even about Russia. In fact, U.S. influence over Ukraine is even less than it is over Israel, despite Israel being far stronger militarily, financially, and politically. This is because, the expert states, Ukraine has allies within the United States itself, and also strongly relies on its European partners.
"That’s why I believe that this kind of conflict-freezing model is only possible if one of the sides begins to sense the possibility of military or military-political defeat. With this sense of defeat, one of the parties might agree to compromises, which could ultimately lead to a frozen conflict. Not before that,” Ruslan Bortnik concludes.
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