Resources, Foothold, or Power Crisis: Expert Explains Why Russia Wants Donetsk Region

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained that Russia’s ultimatum regarding the surrender of the Donetsk region is an attempt to knock over a single domino that could bring down the entire house. He also discussed how this could be avoided, according to Politeka.
He shared his thoughts in his blog:
“It’s about resources. The Donetsk region is very rich in resources. Moreover, it is a direct protrusion, a wedge aimed toward the Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions—an advantageous position from which, in the event of a future war, one could launch an offensive on Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv. But even that is not the most important thing. I believe the main goal for Moscow is to create a precedent—a legal or political precedent—of territories being handed over to it,” said Ruslan Bortnik.
He added that another key objective for Russia in this context is to trigger an internal crisis in Ukraine. As the expert explains, if Ukraine gives up the Donetsk region to Russia without the strictest security guarantees, it would lead to a political crisis and a catastrophe for the Ukrainian government—one the Kremlin would undoubtedly exploit.
“So this is also an attempt to topple just one domino with the confidence that the entire structure will collapse, that Ukraine may face a political and internal crisis in the future, which Russia would, of course, immediately use to strengthen its position—possibly even to seize more territory,” Bortnik warned.
According to the expert, to avoid all these threats, strict agreements are needed: between Ukraine and the U.S. on security guarantees, between Ukraine and the EU on accession, and between Ukraine and Russia on the inviolability of the current de facto separation lines. All of this, he added, should be formalized at the UN Security Council, with additional witnesses and guarantors such as China, India, and other global players.
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