“The war is increasingly spreading onto the enemy’s territory”: expert assessed whether there will be a blackout in the Russian Federation

Political expert and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun actively striking Russia’s energy sector, but warned against nurturing illusions of a total blackout, since there are many facilities there, Politeka reports.

He discussed this in his blog.

“From mid-October to November 1 at least 15 strikes were carried out against energy facilities in Russia. The main targets were high-voltage substations and thermal power plants. According to the OSINT resource DroneBomber, between 1.5 and 2 GW of generating capacity has been put out of service or damaged. That is about 3–4% of Russia’s total electricity production. These figures may seem insignificant to some, but they are the results of literally two weeks,” Musiienko notes.

He added that last night there were strikes in Kursk region and several districts are without power. Earlier there were strikes on the Vladimirskaya, Arzamasskaya, Veyshkama and Balashovskaya substations, the Novobryanskaya substation, on the Klintsy thermal power plant, on a TPP in Orel — all with consequences: power outages, loss of heat and mobile communications, voltage drops, reduced production, decreased exports, airport closures, shutdowns of refineries and other plants, shortages of supplies for the army, etc.

“But I understand it’s not that simple. Russia is large and has a significant number of facilities. One should not expect or set overly high expectations that we will immediately shut down all oil and gas processing — that there will be a total blackout across Russia. No. At the same time, we see that strikes are intensifying and that, unlike the situation in 2023–24 when only the enemy struck our facilities, the war is increasingly spreading onto the enemy’s territory,” Musiienko explains.

He also notes that future strikes on Russian territory may be more complicated because the enemy is learning from Ukraine how to protect facilities with air defense systems and how to use mobile strike groups. On the other hand, Musiienko adds, Ukraine is doing systematic work: it analyzes previous strikes, studies how the enemy counters them, identifies locations of air-defense systems, and accordingly makes adjustments so that attacks on Russia are more effective.

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