Security guarantees, money, or Donbas: Expert explains what the US and Russia are currently arguing about

Political scientist Ruslan Bortnyk explained that the balance of the war remains the same as it was in 2023: Russia cannot win, but it also cannot yet negotiate a peaceful settlement with the US, reports Politeka.
He shared these thoughts in his blog.

"The parties have failed to draft a one-page document, they couldn’t even sign something on a napkin. This is because the complex issues of security guarantees and Ukraine's sphere of influence remain unresolved. And they also can’t agree on the money, ranging from Russia’s frozen assets to the lifting of sanctions. These two issues — security guarantees and money — are what is on the table today. It’s not about Donetsk region; it’s about which sphere of influence Ukraine will fall into and how much each side will pay for what has happened. These two issues are unresolved," says Ruslan Bortnyk.

According to the expert, in this context, meetings between leaders should end with a signed document, otherwise, it means there is no agreement. Otherwise, verbal agreements can be rewritten at will. Signed documents, he emphasizes, are necessary even in everyday life, let alone in discussions between the US and Russia, who, by the way, are under immense internal pressure from hawks and external pressure from Europe, Ukraine, and China, respectively.

"The main reason is that the balance of the war will likely remain roughly the same as it was in 2023, with Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Russia continues to advance and capture territory but cannot achieve a strategic advantage in the war. Accordingly, Ukraine says that, since you’re not winning strategically, the war could last 10 years, and in that time Putin will die, Russia will collapse, and its economy will collapse, so there’s no point in making deep concessions to Moscow,” explains Ruslan Bortnyk.

Therefore, he concludes, until the strategic balance on the front changes, along with internal societal stability and support for the government, reaching mutual concessions will be very difficult, if not impossible.

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