"We are reaching Russia’s key export capabilities": an expert assessed whether Ukraine can force Russia into an energy ceasefire

Political expert and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko stated that strikes on oil exports could force the Kremlin to agree to an energy ceasefire, with Arab countries potentially acting as mediators, Politeka reports.

He shared this in his blog.

According to the expert, Ukrainian strikes have effectively disabled about 60% of the oil export capacity of the port of Ust-Luga. He also noted that partners had been asking Ukraine about these strikes. Ukraine will stop them only if Russia halts its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

“60% of oil exports — that’s simply a breakthrough. That’s great. I’ve long been saying we need to strike Ust-Luga, Primorsk, and Novorossiysk. This is essentially the needle that carries death to Koschei. In other words, we’ve identified what is very costly for Russia, what they can really feel, and what causes them serious problems — oil exports. Not just production and refining, but specifically exports. Undoubtedly, this will continue to bring results. 60% is paralyzed, but that’s not the limit. The work will continue,” commented Oleksandr Musiienko.

As for partners’ inquiries, he suggests they were waiting to see how long it would take before the United States began offering advice or expressing wishes for Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil exports. According to the expert, this may be happening now.

“But how else could appeals have come, particularly from the Middle East? Let me remind you that Middle Eastern countries have often acted as mediators in prisoner exchanges and in securing the release of our people from Russian captivity. Perhaps now they will discuss with Russia the possibility of halting strikes — that is, an energy ceasefire. What’s the advantage for us? We will be able to recover ahead of the heating season, restore our gas production, which the enemy is targeting. And the main guarantee of compliance with this ceasefire is precisely that we can reach Russia’s key export capabilities. If they violate the ceasefire, we will carry out even more strikes — the response will be very powerful,” concluded Oleksandr Musiienko.

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