Belarus Is Preparing for War: Expert Explains What Games Lukashenko Is Playing

Political expert and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko explained why Lukashenko has suddenly begun preparing Belarus for war and what actually lies behind these loud statements.

He spoke about this in his blog.

“Lukashenko convened a meeting to summarize a comprehensive inspection of the Armed Forces, which involved around 300 servicemen, including top-ranking officers. Three hundred servicemen—quite impressive. He said he wants his subordinates to be ready to fight. Well, perhaps those 300 people might be the only ones in the Belarusian army who are ready to fight right now. The rest, I think, are not,” Oleksandr Musiienko says.

The expert continues that Lukashenko also stated Belarus would be feared and no one would dare to attack it—as if anyone actually intends to—claiming they are against war but are preparing for it, preparing to respond, that there can be no peacetime, and so on.

“Well, that’s how it is. Once again, this is escalation in the context of a possible Russian operation against the Baltic states, which is being discussed. Lukashenko is acting within the framework of Russian narratives and propaganda, hinting that such an operation could take place. Accordingly, Belarus could be involved. This is an attempt to escalate the situation in order to say: ‘Be afraid of us.’ And it’s all within the focus of Russian propaganda,” Musiienko explains.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin, the expert notes, is considering the situation and preparing backup scenarios in case it has to end the war against Ukraine. In that case, he claims, they would need to shift the focus of attention, saying that NATO might launch an offensive from the Baltic states, and therefore preparations must be made together with Belarus—this, he says, is how the Russians approach the issue.

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