“It’s fantasy”: an expert assessed whether Bulgaria’s new prime minister will become a new Orbán

Political strategist Mykhailo Sheitelman commented on the results of the parliamentary elections in Bulgaria, where the party of Eurosceptic Rumen Radev won, who is already being called the new Orbán, Politeka reports.

He spoke about this on his blog.

“During four years of war, parliamentary elections in Bulgaria have been held five times, because each time either the coalition was unstable or things didn’t work out, and elections had to be held again. So, to become an Orbán, you need to have a constitutional majority for 20 years. Twenty years of a constitutional majority for people to start comparing you to Lukashenko. And even then, you can lose elections and that’s it. If you think this is now forever in Bulgaria — it’s not. Another year will pass and there will be more elections. We’re already tired of worrying about elections in Bulgaria. This is the fifth time we’ve been worrying about Bulgarian elections during the war,” explains Mykhailo Sheitelman.

Now, he notes, Rumen Radev will have to form a coalition, and for any important decisions he will need pro-European parties; otherwise there is no constitutional majority. Moreover, the expert emphasizes, Bulgaria relies on huge European subsidies — it is the most subsidized country — and Radev will not give up that money. Orbán, he recalls, refused funds; €27 billion were frozen, and Hungary endured it because it had Russian oil.

“We will, of course, hear some unpleasant words. But Radev has already been president — during our war we’ve heard all the unpleasant statements. So to say this will be a new Orbán… No, that’s fantasy. That’s what the Russians will be telling you now,” claims Mykhailo Sheitelman.

Yes, the expert notes, Bulgaria is not the most pro-European country — in fact, one of the more pro-Russian ones — and this was already known. Nevertheless, he stresses that with this government Bulgaria will not leave NATO or the EU, will not block loans to Ukraine, and so on — especially since Radev is unlikely to remain in his position for long.