“Counted on Trump as His Chance”: Expert Assesses Whether Putin Really Intends to End the War

Political analyst and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko explained that Russia did not expect such resistance from Ukraine, while Trump is unable to help, so Putin is now weighing whether to end the war, Politeka reports.

He spoke about this on his blog.

“Putin saw everything differently. His picture of the world has collapsed because the global order is changing. There is no longer a situation where so-called great powers can simply impose their will on smaller states after meeting in Alaska and making decisions for everyone. No, that model has been broken. It has been broken, among other examples, by Iran. Despite everything, the United States and Israel still cannot fully impose their terms on Iran, which is why the U.S. is considering renewed strikes on Iran, as CNN reports. In other words, Putin counted on Trump as his chance — they would reach an agreement, and Ukraine would be forced to comply under pressure. But it did not work, no matter how much Lavrov appealed to the ‘spirit of Alaska,’” Oleksandr Musiienko explains.

According to him, both Trump’s and Putin’s views on international politics are based on the idea that major powers decide everything. They would like the world to work that way, but it no longer does, while Ukraine is demonstrating its own agency and independence. In addition, the expert notes, Russia has suffered enormous losses. They did not expect Ukraine’s technological breakthrough in drones, did not think missiles would strike Russian territory, and did not anticipate Western sanctions.

“Putin is still moving by inertia, following the same track. He does not yet have a final decision on what to do next in the war. It’s more like: let’s keep fighting, maybe something will happen, maybe Trump will eventually pressure Ukraine, maybe Ukraine can still be destabilized from within. That is what he is counting on. In other words, let’s continue and perhaps we can force Ukraine into submission,” Oleksandr Musiienko argues.

However, he concludes that Putin still has no final decision, which is why discussions about a possible quick end to the war are beginning. At the same time, he says, in the near future we will see Putin’s true intentions. Moreover, the expert adds, Putin often speaks quite directly about his intentions, at least regarding the war, since there was also a media campaign preparing the ground ahead of the invasion.