Fertilizers, Military Drills, and Participation in War: Expert Explains What’s Happening Around Belarus

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained what is currently happening around Belarus, why the U.S. is asking to ease sanctions on Belarusian fertilizers, and whether Lukashenko is actually preparing to go to war, reports Politeka.

He shared this in his blog.

According to the expert, the U.S. does not request these fertilizers without reason—they have brought tens of billions of dollars to the Belarusian budget. He explains that there is information suggesting that Trump’s family planned to purchase the Nezhin Potash Fertilizer Plant, which naturally aligns with the U.S. president’s interests, especially since fertilizer prices have risen globally due to the war in the Middle East.

“Ukraine, by putting pressure on Belarus, is trying to force Trump into a trade-off. This is a form of pressure on Washington’s position. Essentially, ‘we could overlook this (i.e., easing fertilizer sanctions) if you help us or make concessions in other areas,’ amid a host of tense issues between Ukraine and the U.S., ranging from timely and sufficient weapons deliveries that Ukraine requests to negotiations and EU membership… This could be a hidden dialogue between our and American leadership,” adds Ruslan Bortnik.

Additionally, he notes that Belarus, together with Russia, constantly conducts military drills and displays weapons. Ukraine, of course, would like to achieve a situation in which Minsk refuses military cooperation with Moscow and provides Kyiv with guarantees against any new invasions. The expert emphasizes that Belarus needs to ensure its territory will not be used for attacks on Ukraine, drone operations, or deployment of Russian intelligence assets.

“The likelihood of an actual war remains low. There are not enough forces in Belarus to pose a real military threat to Ukraine. However, it is possible to create border crises or conduct sabotage operations from Belarusian territory,” asserts Ruslan Bortnik.