“Russia’s losses exceed its mobilization capacity”: Expert says what Putin will do

Political expert and Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko said that Russia is facing problems with mobilization and that Russians are no longer willing to go to war even for money, making coercive measures possible, Politeka reports.

He said this in his blog.

“Russia’s plan for 2026 is to mobilize 409,000 troops. This was also confirmed by Ukrainian military intelligence. Reports have appeared in the Financial Times and in Russian opposition media suggesting that Russia is apparently unable to meet its mobilization target for the current year and is falling behind. The eighth month of the year is already beginning, but they are lagging behind because the enemy’s battlefield losses are increasing, and the enemy is unable to replace them quickly enough. In other words, as of today, Russia’s monthly losses exceed its mobilization capacity,” Oleksandr Musiienko said.

Meanwhile, he explained, the Kremlin is putting pressure on local officials to mobilize people, changing legislation and expanding the categories under which people can be mobilized. It is also putting pressure on people who fail to pay alimony or who own certain property. Students are being recruited and lured into becoming drone operators because even Russia’s ability to attract recruits with financial incentives is beginning to run out.

“The Kremlin cannot fulfill its mobilization target for this year; it cannot mobilize 409,000 people. The Financial Times reports that cases of people being grabbed off the streets are becoming increasingly common. We remember the case in Penza and the surrounding region, which was an experimental approach. But what will happen if forced mobilization is implemented? Everything is moving toward Putin eventually facing his own ‘Maidan’ in Moscow and St. Petersburg (ed. — in connection with the Yabloko party). Russian propagandists should not celebrate: there is a potential for protest, and there is opposition to Putin. That is why he surrounds himself with security forces, stays in secret locations and bunkers, and hides,” Musiienko claims.

According to the expert, Russia will strengthen its repressive apparatus and close its borders to prevent men from fleeing. Before that, he argues, the country’s most active working-age population — the people who generate GDP, pay taxes, and support the economies of major cities — will continue to leave.