The Budapest Memorandum Has Failed: Expert Explains Whether New Security Guarantees Are Possible

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained why returning to the Budapest Memorandum and the treaty on the Russian-Ukrainian border is no longer enough to stop the war, according to Politeka.

He shared his thoughts in a blog post.

“What kind of new security guarantees can there be if the old ones didn’t work? What needs to happen for the new guarantees to actually function when the previous ones failed? But that’s an extremely simplified and even rather shallow way to look at it. Any security guarantees and balance between countries involve not just borders, but also relations between nations, good neighborly ties, and complex humanitarian, cultural, and economic balances,” Bortnik explains.

No one disputes, he emphasizes, that Russia invaded Ukraine, but we can’t just mine the border and adopt a Korean-style solution. According to the expert, in order to achieve a stable peace lasting for decades, we must build new balances on many issues: territory, politics, economy, trade, and so on — all of which constitute the concept of “security” for any modern country.

Otherwise, he warns, we will end up with short-term truces that collapse after every election cycle, and the people will pay for it — with their lives — while the country pays with its future prospects. As the expert explains, we can no longer restore the previous security model, when we had a population of 52 million, nuclear weapons, and the 1991 borders. Therefore, we must establish a new balance with our strategic partners.

“This is a difficult path. If we follow the path of simple solutions, we’ll end up with another catastrophe. And we’ve been living in that catastrophe for decades already — a catastrophe that is at risk of turning into complete ruin,” Bortnik emphasizes.

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