“This Will Be 21st-Century Monitoring”: Expert Speaks About the Guarantees of the Coalition of the Willing

Political analyst and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko said that the Coalition of the Willing is increasingly outlining its future role in ensuring peace in Ukraine, while the United States is becoming more actively involved as well, Politeka reports.

He spoke about this on his blog.

“France and the United Kingdom have signed a declaration of intent regarding the future deployment of multinational forces in Ukraine. This is not yet a ratified document. Ratification is to come in the future. This is Ukraine’s insistence, and it is clear why. We need legal clarity of the documents; society must understand them, and there must be trust. We have been burned by the Budapest Memorandum. We need to start at least with legal guarantees,” Oleksandr Musiienko notes.

In addition, he says that after a ceasefire, the UK and France will create military hubs across Ukraine. This is a very interesting point, because earlier it was only about Western Ukraine. The expert also adds that a coordination center involving Ukraine, Europe, and the United States will be established for joint work between the armies and for strengthening cooperation in the security sphere.

“A ceasefire monitoring mechanism will be organized under US leadership with the participation of European countries. This point is still under development. It is hard to say at this stage how the monitoring will be carried out. The Financial Times writes that this will be 21st-century monitoring, involving a large number of drones, satellites, and all the technical capabilities of US aerial and satellite intelligence. For us, it is fundamentally important that this is not an OSCE 2.0 mission, which, unfortunately, did not fully fulfill its tasks during the ATO. Therefore, the monitoring must be different this time, and accordingly, responsibility must be ensured for the aggressor in case of ceasefire violations,” Oleksandr Musiienko explains.

According to him, the willingness of the United States to join security guarantees for Ukraine is progress and is now encouraging Europe to take further steps. However, the issue of territories has not yet been resolved, and working groups will be addressing this in the coming weeks. But even regarding these security guarantees, the expert emphasizes, there are questions. For example, Meloni has ruled out sending troops and stated that Italy’s participation will be determined domestically, which does not really resemble NATO’s Article 5, which, incidentally, also does not provide for specific mechanisms.

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