Peace deal in March, elections and a referendum in May: expert explains the course of negotiations

Political analyst and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko explained that within a few months peace negotiations could already show progress, because with the end of winter Russia will no longer be able to terrorize Ukrainians, Politeka reports.

He spoke about this on his blog.

“The information coming in increasingly suggests that there are agreements to sign at least a ceasefire in March. The ceasefire could last up to 90 days, and during this period of silence a campaign for a consultative referendum could be held, one that does not concern territory. No one will act contrary to the Constitution. Secondly, the Constitution must be adapted to the realities of wartime. Very often we hear people say, ‘the Constitution…’ Well, the Constitution must serve to protect the interests and rights of citizens,” Oleksandr Musiienko notes.

He explains that the idea is not to ratify peace agreements directly, but to put them to a referendum — in particular, regarding a free economic zone in the Donetsk region, without calling into question Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The idea of holding elections in parallel, the expert explains, is linked to the fact that voter turnout for a referendum alone could be low.

However, he notes that all of this would, of course, depend on progress in the peace talks, although in a month their dynamics may change, as the frosts will end and the heating season will be over. Accordingly, Russia will lose its key instrument — terror against the energy sector. In addition, the expert adds, The Guardian writes that in 2026 clear signs of the final collapse of the Russian economy have appeared.

“On May 31, 2026, there is a possibility of holding a consultative referendum and presidential elections. Again, according to information from Western media citing numerous sources among members of the negotiating group, this really could happen, because many factors are converging. The United States emphasizes that it would like clarity by June. They will fully enter the election campaign — the midterm elections — and Trump needs achievements, while the domestic situation is not entirely smooth. Therefore, they will look in particular for some external factors and victories,” Oleksandr Musiienko concludes.

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