“We dropped by 30% in 2025; we may drop even further in 2026,” – expert on the Czech ammunition supply initiative

Political expert and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko explained why Western partners cannot find the funds this year to purchase ammunition for Ukraine, as reported by Reuters and covered by Politeka.

He spoke about this on his blog.

“Well, that’s it. You see, they are relaxing; they believe negotiations are underway and that the war is moving toward an end. Macron gives interviews saying the war is entering its final phase. In Turkey they say the war is entering its final phase. They say the same in the Czech Republic, in Hungary, and so on. More and more voices are saying this. America wants this war to end as soon as possible and will do everything to make that happen. Believe me, Trump is not going to change his position now,” Oleksandr Musiienko explains.

Therefore, the expert notes, all of this leads to a certain relaxation, and unfortunately it is the Ukrainian people who suffer. We must take this into account, he argues, because the level of Western support we previously had—especially from the United States—may no longer be there, and it is not worth expecting it. These are the realities.

As Reuters reports, the expert continues, the Czech initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine has faced a significant funding shortfall. In 2026, the plan is to purchase €5 billion worth of artillery shells, but so far only about €1.4 billion has been raised. The publication, he notes, points out that the program is funded by foreign donors, including Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands.

“In December, NATO’s mission in Ukraine reported that 1.8 million shells had been procured under the initiative in 2025. That is 43% of all ammunition supplied to Ukraine and about 70% of what Ukraine needs. So we were short by 30% in 2025, and we may fall even further short in 2026. This is, of course, a problem—especially given that the enemy has no shortage of shells. That must also be taken into account,” Oleksandr Musiienko concludes.

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