NATO Exercises and Chinese Sanctions: Expert Assessed Under What Conditions Russia Would Not Have Attacked Ukraine

Economic expert Yuriy Gavrilechko stated that the Russia-Ukraine war would not have been inevitable if the West had shown strength directly in Ukraine, and if the U.S. had reached an agreement with China regarding its position, reports Politeka.

He discussed this on the program “Dialogues” with Ruslan Bortnik.

According to the guest, if one speculates, technically it would have been very simple to prevent the Russian invasion in 2022. All that was needed, given the available intelligence, was to organize another NATO-Ukraine exercise, as nothing prevented this. He stated that it would have been necessary to invite even a limited NATO contingent of 50–100 thousand troops, along with military equipment, and conduct joint exercises in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kyiv regions.

“As you know, if a person is armed, the chances that someone will engage in a direct frontal confrontation with them are much lower than if they are unarmed. Historical tradition shows that people with a pistol or a rifle are not usually confronted by others with the same weapons—because they shoot immediately, not hit in the face. Typically, armed people are not robbed. For some reason, that’s how it works. So this is one possible option,” Yuriy Gavrilechko explains.

On the other hand, the expert notes, an economic method could also have stopped Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For example, he says, if there had been some progress in an agreement between the U.S. and China, ensuring that Beijing would not participate in the process and would under no circumstances support Russia, at least minimally. In other words, the expert emphasizes, one can only imagine what could have happened if China had imposed sanctions on Russia together with the U.S.

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