There Is No Complete Silence Regime: Expert Assesses Whether a Long-Term Ceasefire Is Possible

Political expert and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko explained that Russia continued to violate the ceasefire anyway, but this silence regime indicates that the Kremlin fears Ukraine’s long-range capabilities, Politeka reports.

He spoke about this on his blog.

As the expert notes, Ukraine is not carrying out strikes on Russian territory and is adhering to the ceasefire, while Russia continued launching drones, although in significantly smaller numbers. As for the front line, he adds, the enemy continues assault operations in some areas, and Ukrainian forces are responding because, naturally, no one undertook an obligation to simply stand by and observe. Ukraine continues its strategic defensive operation.

“So, it can be stated that there is no complete silence regime. Russia is violating the ceasefire. For many people, this is not surprising, right? Very few expected full compliance. However, a decrease in the enemy’s fire activity can be observed. That is a fact. This is what can be discussed at the moment,” Oleksandr Musiienko states.

Even though Ukraine has not yet forced Russia to completely stop firing, he emphasizes, Russia has still had to reduce the intensity of its attacks. The reason for this, the expert explains, lies in Ukraine’s long-range capabilities. According to him, this is why Putin called Trump, after which the U.S. president announced a ceasefire. However, he reminds that this so-called silence regime lasts until Tuesday, May 12, and afterward, Russia will likely resume its attacks, while Ukraine will again begin striking targets on Russian territory.

“In other words, a certain phased process can be observed. With each subsequent stage, this truce and ceasefire lead to the enemy being forced to ask for it and forced to reduce its fire activity. It violates the ceasefire, but it reduces the intensity of attacks. Otherwise, what would there be left to discuss with Trump afterward?” Oleksandr Musiienko explains.