“Ceasefire monitoring must be specified”: expert explains why ceasefires with Russia never work

Political expert and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko explained that a proper ceasefire must be formally signed with all details clearly outlined, while what exists between Ukraine and Russia is merely a political show, Politeka reports.

He spoke about this on his blog.

“The issue now is that America must stop simply calling for ceasefires without consequences. By the way, Professors Matthew Joshi and Daniel Byman wrote about this in an article for The New York Times. They say that a ceasefire is part of a political show. I would add that it is a terrible political show — an absolutely horrifying show drenched in blood,” Oleksandr Musiienko emphasized.

According to the expert, the professors studied 42 peace agreements from 1989 to 2018 and found that they were implemented over an average period of about four years. As for the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, he noted that it lacked key conditions — independent oversight and a political framework.

“There cannot be any unilateral actions. Putin comes out and says that we are entering a ceasefire, Trump calls and says that’s it, there is a truce… No, every ceasefire must be documented on paper, and every detail must be specified there. If it involves Ukraine, Russia, and the United States, then all three parties must sign it. Even better if Europe, Turkey, and as many other players as possible are involved. Ceasefire monitoring by the United States, Europe, and Turkey must be specified. There must be a clear agreement and timeline for the ceasefire. A detailed framework must include a ceasefire on land, at sea, and in the air — down to listing every drone that is prohibited from being used. Americans and Europeans must come out and state how many times Russia violated the ceasefire and, accordingly, impose sanctions and help Ukraine,” Oleksandr Musiienko explained.

Therefore, he concluded, the so-called ceasefire from May 9–11 failed not only because Russian troops violated it, but also because the formal conditions were never properly established. In general, the expert added, Russia appears interested only in escalation, rejects trilateral negotiations, and therefore there is little reason to expect a genuine ceasefire.