The Thucydides Trap: Expert Assesses Whether a U.S.-China War Could Begin Under Trump and Xi

Political strategist Mikhail Sheitelman explained that the United States and China may fail to overcome the Thucydides Trap in the future — though not right now — while Russia has already fallen into it, and “all that remains for us is to crush it,” reports Politeka.

He discussed this on his blog.

The Thucydides Trap, which Xi mentioned during a meeting with Xi Jinping, the expert notes, is a theory developed by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who described the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. The essence of this theory in international politics, he explains, is that when a second great power rapidly rises alongside an existing great power, the risk of war between them increases. In other words, China is currently expanding its power relative to the United States, and conflict between them is inevitably growing.

“I don’t know whether the U.S. and China will be able to overcome the Thucydides Trap. We’ll see. After all, Trump will not remain president of the United States forever. Who will lead after him? But I find it hard to believe that they will go to war within the next two years, because one side’s knees are shaking — I mean Comrade Xi — and Trump is trembling too. It’s difficult for me to imagine the two of them starting a war together. However, leaders will eventually change in both China and the United States, and a major war between them is entirely possible. They may well drag each other into the Thucydides Trap,” Mikhail Sheitelman argues.

Nevertheless, he emphasizes that the Russian-Ukrainian war began precisely because of this dynamic. Yes, the expert notes, neither Russia nor Ukraine were global superpowers, but Russia considered itself some kind of regional leader, while Ukraine suddenly began to grow and prosper, surpassing Russians in average and minimum wages, and so on. In other words, he explains, Russia saw Ukraine as a competitor that could become a new regional power, join the EU and NATO, and become a new center of attraction.

“The Russians became jealous and decided to destroy Ukraine so that it would not grow even stronger, but they achieved the opposite effect. Ukraine was struck again and again, yet it only kept growing, building the most powerful army, developing major technologies, and becoming a leader. That is the result of our Peloponnesian War. So Russia has undoubtedly fallen into the Thucydides Trap, and our task is to crush it inside that trap,” Mikhail Sheitelman concluded.