“Belarus has thrown itself under Moscow’s wing”: an expert assessed what the reaction to pressure from Ukraine will be

Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik explained what the report and warning from the Belarusian opposition are really about — whether they refer to direct threats to Ukraine right now or to the militarization of Belarus in general, Politeka reports.

He spoke about this in his blog.

According to the expert, the report from the Belarusian opposition is not so much about Belarus preparing for war at present, but rather about the overall militarization of the Belarusian state. It contains a lot of data from 2022–2024. In other words, he explains, the report illustrates that Belarus has begun to arm itself, develop its army, and increase the number of potential soldiers, because, in addition to the small traditional Belarusian army, people often forget that Belarus is again preparing a large partisan movement.

“In the report, as far as the current moment is concerned, there are only a few aspects. The main bulk of the report concerns the general militarization of Belarus. The Belarusian opposition, of course, is trying in this way to assist Ukraine, the Ukrainian position, and to show the militant and criminal nature of the current Belarusian government, because it is fighting for power,” Ruslan Bortnik explains.

He emphasizes that a more dangerous trend and a more dangerous situation is that Lukashenko and Putin will somehow respond to pressure from Ukraine. Yes, the expert notes, Russia’s resources are currently limited, but decisions are possible to allocate additional air defense systems to Belarus, to transfer additional Russian military units there that are either resting or just being formed, as well as rhetoric involving threats of using ballistic or even nuclear missiles located on Belarusian territory.

“Because of Ukrainian pressure, Belarus has thrown itself under Moscow’s wing. Every time we do something regarding Belarus, we must remember that Belarus runs to Russia, and Russia’s influence on Belarus increases. Therefore, we need to work with Belarus both by persuasion and by force, with both a carrot and a stick, if we do not want to end up with another full-fledged official enemy on our borders,” Ruslan Bortnik warns.

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