“Everything Must Fly at Putin Now”: Expert Explains How Russia Could Be Forced into Peace Talks This Autumn
Political analyst and Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko said that Putin believes he can exhaust Ukraine faster than Russia itself will be exhausted, and therefore has no intention of entering negotiations this autumn. According to Musiienko, only increased pressure can change that, Politeka reports.
He shared his views on his blog.
According to the expert, Ukraine’s Plan A is to force Russia into negotiations in November. Before that, however, he expects the conflict to reach a peak in escalation. To make negotiations possible, pressure on Russia must become so intense that people within Putin’s inner circle would be prepared to remove him from power.
Musiienko notes that, according to Mykhailo Podolyak, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proposed halting aerial strikes and freezing the front line. However, Podolyak also acknowledges that Russia is unlikely to accept such a proposal because Putin believes he can wear Ukraine down through missile and drone attacks faster than Ukraine can weaken Russia.
The expert also points to international political developments. As reported by The Telegraph, the future of the so-called Coalition of the Willing may be uncertain due to next year’s elections in France and the possibility that Friedrich Merz could lose political influence following regional elections in Germany. Putin, Musiienko argues, is counting on these developments, as well as on the possibility of Donald Trump returning to more Russia-friendly positions.
“Russia wants to create more favorable conditions for future negotiations, perhaps in the spring, when it could discuss issues such as a halt to aerial strikes, an energy ceasefire, and freezing the front line. Although that is difficult to imagine. In July, Russia suffered record losses—42,000 personnel. Despite everything, Ukraine’s Defense Forces continue increasing pressure and inflicting greater losses on the enemy. There will be more, as Commander-in-Chief Drapatyi has issued new directives to intensify this pressure,” Musiienko said.
At the same time, the expert warns that Russia is expanding its missile production, reportedly manufacturing around 65 ballistic missiles per month. He also notes Russia’s reliance on S-400 systems, military assistance from North Korea, and its efforts to stockpile drones for the autumn and winter campaign.
Therefore, Musiienko argues that, to force Putin to the negotiating table, Ukraine and its partners must continue inflicting losses on Russian forces at the front, strike Russia’s economy, target its military-industrial complex, and destroy missile launch systems.
“The Americans and Europeans must make it clear that everything that can be launched should be directed at Putin now. We also need additional air defense systems and tougher sanctions. Only then might we be able to force Russia into negotiations. Otherwise, the war will most likely continue through the winter, with the prospect of talks postponed until the spring,” Musiienko concluded.