Trade Over War: Expert Explains Why China Is Calling for Peace Between Ukraine and Russia
Political strategist Mykhailo Sheitelman explained that China is interested in trade rather than war. According to him, Beijing is calling for a ceasefire as a prerequisite for peace negotiations, rather than following the sequence preferred by Russia, Politeka reports.
He shared these views on his blog.
According to the expert, it has become clear that Alexander Lukashenko traveled to China to seek protection from Xi Jinping, ensuring that Belarus would not enter the war as Vladimir Putin reportedly wants. However, the more interesting question, Sheitelman says, is why this matters so much to China itself. Analysts have estimated that around 10% of China's exports to Europe pass through Belarus, which appears to be a realistic figure. If Belarus were to enter the war, those trade routes would be disrupted.
"Naturally, the Polish-Belarusian border would be closed automatically. That would mark the end of China's overland exports. It would also likely lead to the destruction of certain Chinese-owned facilities. China has invested heavily in Belarus, including a plant producing chemical salts. Since it belongs to the chemical industry, it would almost certainly be among the 500 targets identified by Madyar on Belarusian territory. Overall, I believe it would be a complete disaster if Belarus entered the war," Sheitelman explained.
He also noted that China's representative to the United Nations called on the parties to resume negotiations and address the root causes of the conflict through unconditional adherence to the principles of the UN Charter, with the goal of achieving a ceasefire. According to Sheitelman, Russia will focus on the reference to the "root causes" of the conflict, arguing that China is echoing Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. However, China also emphasizes compliance with the UN Charter. Moreover, Sheitelman recalled that during the war China published a 12-point peace proposal, the first four points of which include guaranteeing the independence and territorial integrity of all countries, rejecting the Cold War mentality and the expansion of military blocs, implementing a ceasefire, and launching peace negotiations.
"What does this mean? China first calls for the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity. That point clearly favors Ukraine. As for Russia, China's second point proposes that NATO should not expand. After that comes a ceasefire, followed by the start of peace negotiations. Remember how Russia used to argue, referring to the Minsk agreements, that because the points were written in a particular order, they had to be implemented in that same order? The same logic applies here: the third point is a ceasefire, and the fourth is the start of peace negotiations. In other words, first a ceasefire, then peace talks—and not the other way around, dear Russian friends. That is what your Chinese Uncle Xi is demanding from you," Sheitelman concluded.