“For Trump, this would be a diplomatic victory”: Expert assesses whether the US can get Putin to agree to an energy ceasefire

Political strategist Mikhail Sheitelman explained that Putin could actually agree to an energy ceasefire in order to help Republicans win the elections, but the shelling would resume afterward, Politeka reports.

He said this in his blog.

Following the visits by Witkoff and Kushner, the expert says, Zelensky gave an interview to Axios in which he said that the United States is exploring the possibility of de-escalating the war by winter. Zelensky also said he had the feeling that Putin does not want to upset Trump and therefore might agree to a temporary concession, such as a moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure. According to him, this could mean suspending attacks on energy facilities until the U.S. congressional elections on November 4, in order to help Republicans win.

“And the idea is quite workable purely from a political-strategy standpoint. Why not? Let’s imagine the situation for a moment. Trump meets with Zelensky on September 20–22, calls Putin and says: ‘Dear Vladimir, why don’t we stop strikes against energy infrastructure and the rear areas altogether?’ Putin would say, of course, and thank Trump for the proposal. He would then trumpet to everyone that the great Trump had finally found a diplomatic solution to the problem. For Trump, this would be a diplomatic victory; Putin would help Trump. Putin would earn 100 points with Trump,” Mikhail Sheitelman argues.

At the same time, he emphasizes, it is important to understand that Trump does not really care what happens after November 4. He only needs the congressional elections, and he will not care if Putin resumes firing on Kyiv as early as November 5. In other words, the expert explains, Putin could commit to a month-and-a-half pause in the shelling, use that time to stockpile missiles, and then, after November 4, launch decisive ballistic missile strikes, while Ukraine is unlikely to have been able to stockpile Patriot missiles during that period.

“We need to be prepared for such a scenario. And in his interview with Axios, Zelensky explained what the talks with Witkoff and Kushner were about. He said there are some ideas concerning energy, grain, and the electricity sector, as well as oil and gas, but our interests and Russia’s interests are different. Therefore, overall, Zelensky was, of course, skeptical about the prospects of these negotiations,” Mikhail Sheitelman concludes.