Political scientist explains whether Trump's meeting with Putin will bring the end of the war closer
Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik explained that only a serious military factor or direct US entry into negotiations can force Russia to make concessions, Politeka reports.
He wrote about this in his blog.
"The parties will exchange their draft memoranda sometime next week, maybe in a week, which will immediately go to the media. Everyone will start arguing about these memoranda, and then, maybe, if there is pressure from Trump, there will be a meeting between the parties to read these memoranda to each other again, formally transfer them. Or maybe there won't be one," Ruslan Bortnik reasons.
In his opinion, some serious factor is needed for Russia to compromise - military or political. For example, the expert notes, it will work if the US directly enters the negotiation process, if they become a party to the negotiations, sign documents, place bets, put their interests on the line, make concessions to Ukraine and Russia.
“Ukraine and Russia have many requests to the US, the satisfaction of which can be part of a compromise. Then the situation may be different. Otherwise, unfortunately, the most likely scenario so far is the inertial development of the continuation of hostilities until autumn. Then a new attempt to hold negotiations. No, the negotiations will be held in parallel, that is, formally the groups will work, but in such a sluggish format,” explains Ruslan Bortnik.
As for the meeting between Trump and Putin, in his opinion, documents should be prepared for this, for example, a deal on rare earth metals or an agreement on strategic stability. On the other hand, the expert reasons, Trump may simply want to show a fig to China and Europe, and Putin - to those European elites who oppose Moscow. However, he notes that this meeting is unlikely to bring any easing of tension or a breakthrough.
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