Balancing Factors, Not Red Lines: Expert Explains How to Achieve Progress in Peace Talks

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained that for productive negotiations, it is necessary to look for motivating balancing factors that will help elites and society agree to concessions and compromises. He shared this view on his blog.

According to the expert, everyone already knows the red lines, and people are tired of hearing about them. Therefore, the focus should be on balancing factors that bring the positions of the parties closer together within the framework of Ukrainian-Russian negotiations. He argues that expert groups preparing for peace talks should concentrate precisely on these balancing factors.

“It is unrealistic and counterproductive to simply expect a radical shift in one side’s position or a rejection of its red lines. Therefore, we must first seek new additional motives and arguments that bring the sides closer together and balance their positions. Each party to the conflict may have many such balancing factors. By systematically combining them, it is possible to create the necessary conditions for the negotiating parties to achieve peace. Essentially, balancing factors are the unmet goals of the parties—goals whose achievement is desirable,” explains Ruslan Bortnik.

For example, he suggests that such balancing factors could include security guarantees for Ukraine, the EU, and Russia; the lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of Russian assets; a peacekeeping or monitoring mission in Ukraine; EU membership and reconstruction; buffer zones; changes in humanitarian policy in Ukraine and Russia; and a reduction in offensive weapons.

“As a result of analysis, probably close to a hundred such balancing elements could be identified. These balancing elements could be grouped into motivational blocks for Ukraine, for Russia, for Europe, for the United States, and for China. They could significantly influence positive perceptions and the willingness of societies and elites to agree to certain arrangements, make concessions, and reach compromises,” Ruslan Bortnik concludes.

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