“‘150,000–200,000 troops would need to be concentrated’: expert assesses whether there is a threat of a Russian offensive from the north

Political analyst and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko commented on warnings about Russia preparing for an offensive from the north and assessed the real risks, Politeka reports.

He spoke about this on his blog.

According to the expert, Russia has never abandoned its plans to attack from the north. There were attempts, he recalls, to create a buffer zone in the Sumy region. Some representatives of the expert community and media sounded the alarm about the threat of a partial encirclement of Sumy, but the enemy lacked the forces for an operational-strategic breakthrough, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine stabilized the situation.

‘At the end of last year, there was information that the enemy was preparing certain sabotage actions from the Bryansk region toward the Chernihiv region, but at that time it was possible to employ the full range of preventive measures and prevent any enemy actions from that direction. However, the situation remains under constant surveillance. Intelligence is operating in the Bryansk region because there is an understanding that, in some areas, especially using forest terrain, the enemy may infiltrate sabotage and reconnaissance groups,’ Oleksandr Musiienko explains.

As for possible scenarios, he says these could include a concentration of forces in the Bryansk region or Belarus, attempts to create a buffer zone, provocations, sabotage and reconnaissance group activity, and shelling. However, the expert stresses that the redeployment of a significant number of troops would not go unnoticed. Moreover, he adds, the Russians do not have a large reserve force. More than 100,000 Russian troops are currently operating in the Pokrovsk and Oleksandrivka directions, and they are being contained.

‘Just imagine what kind of force grouping would be needed to attempt to cross the Prypiat River and establish pontoon crossings under the fire control of Ukraine’s Defense Forces. Because all the bridges that existed there were blown up back in 2022 to defend against an attack from Belarusian territory. A grouping of 150,000–200,000 troops and a significant amount of equipment would have to be concentrated, and that cannot go unnoticed. As soon as such a grouping begins concentrating near our border, we can act preventively. Let me remind you that Belarus has the Mozyr Oil Refinery and more besides — there are many facilities there, so Lukashenko should think carefully,’ Oleksandr Musiienko concluded.”