Lukashenko May Be a Mediator or a Messenger Between Russia and China, Expert Says About His Visits to Moscow and Beijing

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained why, amid the ongoing crisis between Ukraine and Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko first traveled to meet Vladimir Putin and then headed to China to meet Xi Jinping, according to Politeka.

He shared his views on his blog.

According to the expert, many expected Putin and Lukashenko to focus primarily on Ukraine during their meeting, discussing the growing tensions between Ukraine and Belarus, the possibility of military action, and statements made by the Ukrainian president. In Bortnik's opinion, these issues were indeed discussed, but no concrete outcomes have yet emerged publicly. Shortly afterward, Lukashenko departed on what he described as a broader tour of Asia, including a visit to China.

"Lukashenko said this is an extended tour of Asia. If he truly believed that Belarus was facing an imminent threat, he probably would not have gone on this trip now. Alternatively, Lukashenko may have left because, in the event of a crisis between Ukraine and Belarus, decisions could be made by the Belarusian security services, which are dependent on and oriented toward Moscow. That would be a very dangerous situation," Bortnik argued.

According to him, while Russia's air defense system is currently stretched to its limits trying to protect Russian regions from Ukrainian strikes, China's air defense capabilities are not similarly constrained. As a result, China could significantly strengthen Belarus's air defense. Moreover, Bortnik noted, Belarus is not formally a participant in the war between Ukraine and Russia, making Chinese military deliveries to Belarus less politically risky and less likely to provoke international criticism than direct shipments to Russia. He also pointed out that, according to American media reports, Chinese supplies to Iran had a significant impact on the conflict in the Middle East.

"Lukashenko may also be carrying certain messages from Putin to Xi Jinping, including messages related to the current situation in Russia and the course of the war between Ukraine and Russia. He could serve as a mediator or simply a messenger between Russia and China, delivering sensitive communications. That is why this visit deserves very close attention, as it could once again alter the security balance in Eastern Europe and lead to new developments, ideas, and initiatives," Ruslan Bortnik concluded.

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