“There Is Border Guarding, and There Is Border Defense”: Expert Assesses Whether Escalation with Belarus Is Necessary

Military expert Oleg Starikov explained that after the ultimatum to remove the towers in Belarus that help Russia attack Ukraine, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has several options, but each could have consequences, according to Politeka.

He discussed this on his channel.

“What is the scenario? The ultimatum is accepted. What would that mean for the Republic of Belarus and for Lukashenko personally? Well, he would lose political credibility as a tough leader. He would have to step down. That is the first option.

The next option is that he does not accept the ultimatum. There are two possibilities: he can say so openly, or he can remain silent. But in order not to lose face, Zelenskyy would then have to strike a specific target on Belarusian territory,” Starikov claims.

According to the expert, issues of international politics can be left to diplomats and legal experts, but from a military perspective, Lukashenko would then have two choices: respond or not respond—that is, escalate the situation or lose face.

It is clear, he notes, that Ukraine’s objective is to remove these relay towers and eliminate the threat they pose. However, Europe does not appear to fear Russian strikes against the logistics routes that supply Ukraine, so it is unclear whether Lukashenko would be intimidated by such threats.

More broadly, the expert argues, the risks must also be considered. Ukraine already has a long front line with Russia, and opening another 1,000 kilometers of active tension along the Belarusian border would be undesirable. It could lead to incursions by sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs), while important logistics routes run nearby.

“They would stretch the front and expand it into Belarus. Then we would have to redeploy units that are currently holding back the enemy’s offensive in order to cover the state border. There is border guarding, and there is border defense. In that case, one corps would not be enough. Two or three corps would be required. Where would we get them? From our operational and strategic reserves,” Oleg Starikov warns.