"I Think This Is Just a Trial Run": Expert Assesses Renewed Momentum in the Negotiation Track
Political analyst and Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko said that while the United States has recently stepped up its diplomatic efforts, it is unlikely to produce tangible results at this stage, as Putin remains focused on capturing the Donbas, Politeka reports.
He shared these views on his blog.
According to the expert, a delegation led by U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker and Pierre Bezzard, head of the NATO Security Assistance and Training Mission for Ukraine (NSATU), recently visited Kyiv. They discussed the outcomes of the NATO summit in Ankara, agreements on licensing the production of Patriot missiles, the Drone Deal initiative, and the implementation of the PURL program.
"The discussions focused on military-technical cooperation, defense collaboration, and cooperation between Ukraine and NATO, as well as between Ukraine and the United States. However, given that Whitaker has previously commented on the negotiation process and spoken about possible security guarantees for Ukraine, it is quite possible that the Russian-Ukrainian war was also discussed. Perhaps the Americans wanted to understand how Ukraine views potential future negotiations, the current state of our strikes on Russian territory, and how effectively they are weakening the enemy," Musiienko noted.
He also pointed out that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a phone call with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in the Philippines. According to Musiienko, these developments indicate that the United States intends to continue its strategic dialogue. In addition, several Ukrainian media outlets, citing their sources, reported that Zelenskyy is preparing for a visit to the United States in July, where he is expected to attend the funeral ceremony of Senator Lindsey Graham, meet with President Donald Trump, members of Congress, and representatives of the American business community. The expert stressed that Ukraine should make the most of the visit to strengthen international support.
"As for the negotiation track, we'll have to wait and see. I think this is just a trial run. I don't believe anything major will happen at this point. Bloomberg, citing Russian sources, reports that Putin will only be prepared to resume dialogue after Russian forces capture the Donetsk region. In other words, Russia's military objectives and plans have not changed. Donetsk remains the enemy's primary axis of offensive operations. Russian forces are trying to seize Kostiantynivka and advance toward the Pokrovsk and Sloviansk directions. Bloomberg reports that only after achieving these objectives would Putin be ready to resume talks. My forecast remains unchanged: meaningful negotiations are unlikely before the second half of October or early November," Musiienko concluded.