The Parties Reached an Informal Understanding, Expert Says on De-escalation with Belarus

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik commented on the statement by the Belarusian Ministry of Defense that it does not see a threat of aggression from NATO or Ukraine, and explained what lies behind it, Politeka reports.

He shared his views on his blog.

"Belarus is trying to reduce tensions around itself and its borders. This is not only a matter of security but also of the economy. Belarus remains one of the key transit hubs for international trade, including Chinese and Russian trade. Therefore, it has no interest in escalation at this point," Bortnik explained.

According to the analyst, these conciliatory statements are an attempt to convey that everything is calm in Belarus, that there are no tensions, let alone any likelihood of war, that no one intends to attack NATO, and that Europe faces no threat from this direction.

He noted that the narrative within Europe is quite different. Western media continue to publish articles about potential threats—for example, outlining five possible scenarios for a Russian attack, three of which involve an offensive launched from Belarus. Therefore, Bortnik argues, Belarus is using these statements to ease tensions following a period of heightened strain.

"However, it appears that the parties have reached an informal understanding. I mean Ukraine and Belarus, because we have indeed stopped hearing statements about the repeaters. There is simply silence now. Were they there or not? We don't know. Were they operating or not? We cannot say for certain either. But a period of silence has begun, the purpose of which is probably, above all, to ensure the continuation of trade flows that are now very important, including for Europe," Bortnik concluded.