Aikido in Negotiations: Expert Explains Why Russia Refuses a 30-Day Ceasefire

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained that Trump could establish a long-term ceasefire between the sides if he makes concessions to both — lifting sanctions on Russia and providing weapons to Ukraine, reports Politeka.

He shared this in his blog.

“Here, the methods of aikido were applied. We are not ready to accept your terms — so accept ours: a 30-day ceasefire. Objectively speaking, this means Ukraine rejected the Russian ceasefire proposal, and Russia rejected Ukraine’s proposal. Either both sides are rejecting a ceasefire, or neither is rejecting it and instead promoting their own models. That’s how I think it’s fair to describe the situation,” said Ruslan Bortnik.

As he explains, Putin won’t agree to a 30-day ceasefire because that would mean abandoning Russia’s preconditions — and there’s a whole list: lifting sanctions on Rosselkhozbank, insurance, the fleet, Aeroflot, grain and fertilizer exports, and so on. Therefore, the expert notes, a 1–3-day ceasefire for humanitarian reasons would be a gesture of goodwill, while agreeing to 30 days would be a political decision.

“And Ukraine perfectly understands that a long-term ceasefire would mean canceling Russia’s preconditions. It would mean neutralizing Russia’s advantages in air and long-range missile systems. Because it's impossible to truly monitor a ceasefire along the front line — shooting in the trenches would continue — but deep strikes into Ukrainian territory by Russia would stop,” Bortnik explains.

So, the expert concludes, Ukraine and Russia won’t meet each other halfway. Only U.S. concessions to both sides could work here — for instance, Trump could partially lift sanctions on Russia and increase aid packages to Ukraine. In his view, these concessions wouldn’t be painful for the U.S., but they could create conditions for a long-term ceasefire, and Trump would get the image he needs — that he managed to stop a major war.

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