"Zapad-2025" Exercises: Expert Assesses Whether Russian Troops Will Try to Take Kyiv Again

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik assessed possible developments during the "Zapad-2025" military exercises, during which Russia plans to concentrate a group of troops in Belarus by autumn, according to Politeka.
He spoke about this in his blog.

According to the expert, there is ongoing discussion and various theories about how the Kremlin might use these exercises and the troop buildup. In particular, he notes that some military experts suggest that Russia might strike at Rivne in order to cut off logistics routes through Ukraine’s western borders. However, Bortnik considers this scenario unlikely. Even if Russian forces manage to disrupt logistics around Ternopil, supply routes also run through Romania and Moldova. Moreover, it would be nearly impossible for the enemy to advance deeply through western Ukraine — it's simply unrealistic.

"Another point of view is that they will try to go for Kyiv again — again through the Chernobyl zone toward Kyiv. I don’t really believe in this scenario, because many lessons have been learned and everything is now well-prepared there," Bortnik notes.

According to him, a more dangerous and logical scenario would be an attempt to strike the left bank of the Dnipro River — a joint assault from both Belarus and Russia targeting Chernihiv, Brovary, and the left-bank areas of Kyiv. He adds that such a move could also intensify a Russian offensive on the Sumy region, as a strike on the left bank would cut off logistics routes leading into Sumy.

“Moreover, Belarusian territory might not even be used directly — only Russian territory could be involved. Or, for example, tension could simply be created along the border with Belarus to stretch out our forces — sabotage operations and so on. Tension could be created just to make us keep our troops stationed there,” Bortnik explains.

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