Offensive on Crimea: Expert Explains Why Russia Really Wants a Black Sea Ceasefire

Political expert and military serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko stated that Russian war correspondents are panicking over the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (UAF) potential operation in Crimea, and are even speculating about possible scenarios, Politeka reports.

He shared this in his blog.

"Naval Forces Commander Neizhpapa says the Crimean Bridge remains an important target for the UAF, but such plans require informational silence. While Ukrainian troops, commentators, experts, soldiers, and commanders remain quiet, Russia is becoming increasingly concerned that Ukraine may be preparing an offensive on Crimea. This is being discussed openly by Russian war correspondents and military bloggers," Musiienko explains.

For example, he notes, military blogger Mikhail Zinchuk, in the Telegram channel “Rybar,” pointed to three indicators of a potential UAF attack on Crimea. First, Ukraine is rapidly increasing the size of its boat fleet and marine drones, which have already forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to retreat to Novorossiysk. Second, Ukraine is accelerating the development of unmanned technologies. Third, there are reports of UAF paratrooper training exercises along various parts of the Black Sea coast.

This means, Musiienko observes, that on one hand, Russian forces continue their full-scale invasion, supported by North Korea and China, while Putin claims victory is near — yet Russians themselves are afraid Ukraine might strike Crimea. According to the expert, this signals a failure of Russian propaganda and reflects a systemic crisis, particularly in the realm of information and psychological operations (IPSO).

“Why has Russia insisted so heavily on a ceasefire in the Black Sea? Why are they so eager for it? After all, no large-scale combat is currently taking place there — aside from Russia’s criminal terrorist strikes on Ukrainian cities like Odesa, using ballistic missiles or drones launched from Crimea. Russia, in fact, wants to preserve its position — they are genuinely afraid of attacks on Crimea,” Musiienko explains.

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