Access to the Sea, Oil, and the Army: Expert Assesses What Russia Would Lose If It Attacks Azerbaijan

Political strategist Mikhail Sheitelman spoke about who would win if Russia starts a war against Azerbaijan, as the Z-community is currently urging, according to Politeka.
He shared his thoughts in his blog.

“A cold war has begun between Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation. Anti-Russian events are unfolding in Baku; a kind of anti-Russian hysteria is beginning—in a good sense. Employees of ‘Sputnik’ have been arrested. ‘Sputnik’ is a propaganda agency that Russians have spread all over the world. In many countries, even in Europe, it was shut down before the full-scale war; employees were expelled and deported. In Azerbaijan, it still operates—publishing newspapers, running websites, that kind of thing. And now, Sputnik employees are being arrested in Azerbaijan,” says Mikhail Sheitelman.

He notes that Azerbaijani-Russian relations seem to have come to an end, especially since the Z-community is calling on Putin to start a war. They write that there are many people in Azerbaijan who don’t like the current anti-Russian stance, that Russia should consider its security in the Caspian Sea region, and so on.

“Baku is a Russian city, just like Kyiv. Everything in its own time.” That is, Russians are openly writing that they want to seize Baku. I think if they attack there, they’ll get punched in the face like they haven’t in a long time. When they attacked us in 2022, that was still an army that had been preparing for decades to invade Ukraine—decades preparing for a major war—and it was very difficult to stop. But today, they are broken down bums on motorcycles, with hardly any APCs or tanks left. And now they’re going to try to fight Azerbaijan, and whose side will step in, of course? That’s right—Turkey,” explains Mikhail Sheitelman.

He emphasizes that it’s no coincidence Erdogan has already announced a sudden visit to Azerbaijan—clearly, they are preparing to defend Azerbaijan from the Russians. And if a new front opens there, the expert argues, Russia could even lose its oil, because all those Caspian oil fields will be destroyed by Turkey in seconds. Plus, an offensive could be launched from two directions to cut Russia off from the sea.

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