“This makes an offensive impossible”: military expert explains how the weather in Donbas is hindering the Russians

Military expert Arty Green said that in Donetsk region the soil is currently such that as soon as the fog lifts it immediately reveals enemy movement by the tracks, Politeka reports.

He discussed this on the program “Dialogues” with Ruslan Bortnik.

According to the guest, in Donetsk region — where roughly 50% of active fighting is taking place now — the ground is very peculiar: when the weather is dry the soil is like cement, and when it’s wet it’s like rendered lard.

“Therefore any movement of vehicles is only possible on roads with improved surfacing, i.e. those where half a meter of crushed stone has been laid. Only then can anything other than light tracked vehicles use them. A tank will get stuck. Only light tracked vehicles can move. For example, I’m not sure a Bradley would get through. An BMP‑1 will make it. But I’m not sure about a Bradley. Tanks will definitely bog down. In addition, tracked vehicles leave such tracks that it’s impossible not to see them,” Arty Green says.

As for weather that prevents flight, he notes it’s 3–4 hours a day when there is fog or rain — drones have limited visibility then — but the rest of the time everything works. So, the expert explains, when the enemy takes advantage of the situation, puts a lot of weight on themselves and moves through this mud to reach a house or a copse, the tracks still remain; you can send a Mavic there and then methodically smash the position with artillery, so camouflage in such conditions is impossible. Running on foot, the artillery scout adds, won’t work either: a 20‑km forced march could take the Russians about two days to reach the point from which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will certainly spot them, and then within the following 20–40 hours they will be eliminated.

“So, in fact this makes an offensive impossible. Vehicles, for example, still won’t be able to dash along those roads, because they will be totally mined. Both we and the enemy have learned that,” Arty Green concludes.

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