Security guarantees for 10 years: expert assesses what the U.S. is offering Ukraine in exchange for concessions

Political expert and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko commented on the leaks of the U.S. peace plan and stated that taking Russia’s demands into account nullifies any adequate security guarantees for Ukraine, Politeka reports.
He spoke about this in his blog.

According to the expert, various media outlets report that Trump’s peace plan envisions reducing the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, though the numbers differ: the minimum is 300,000 personnel, while other sources mention 500,000–600,000. But the main point is that it is not 80,000, which Putin insisted on—meaning Russia’s demand is only partially taken into account. He continues, noting that reports also mention restrictions on Ukraine’s possession of long-range missile systems—Russia is very afraid of strikes on Moscow and St. Petersburg—as well as a ban on deploying foreign military contingents on Ukrainian territory.

“A new publication has appeared claiming that the U.S., together with Europe, is ready to provide Ukraine with 10-year security guarantees, equating an attack on Ukraine to an attack on a NATO country. At the same time, of course, troop deployment is not allowed. This is not a security guarantee. U.S. aircraft cannot be stationed here, nor U.S. long-range weapons. So the question is how this security guarantee would actually be ensured. So far, only sanctions have been included, but we understand that this is not a guarantee at all. It’s just an additional accompanying element, while a true guarantee is weapons and assistance. That part remains unclear, but at least the issue is being put on the agenda,” Oleksandr Musiienko comments.

As for the plan that appeared in Ukrainian media, he notes, it states that Ukraine remains a non-nuclear state—as if we were about to develop nuclear weapons under IAEA monitoring—and it also codifies a non-aligned status and a constitutional renunciation of NATO.

“In other words, NATO has to be told ‘goodbye’ under this plan. Let’s be honest. It’s not like they were rushing to accept us anyway, particularly because of the U.S. position. So NATO was apparently not in the cards for us, and we need to think about other security guarantees. And the most effective security guarantee is our own potential—our internal resources, will, and determination to work in the interests of the country, especially in defense and security—so that the enemy understands that this is a mobilized nation and that, if anything happens, they will face serious consequences,” Oleksandr Musiienko concludes.

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