Lack of geopolitical status: expert assesses what pushed Putin to wage war against Ukraine

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnyk explained when Russia made the global decision that there would be a war with Ukraine, why this became possible, and whether anything would have changed if Ukraine had nuclear weapons, Politeka reports.
He discussed this in his blog.

“If we look strategically, from a long-term perspective, I believe the decision for war was made sometime in 1994, when Ukraine lost its nuclear potential, the Black Sea Shipping Company, and at the same time failed to integrate into the new geopolitical reality, remaining in the buffer space between East and West,” Ruslan Bortnyk claims.

As for tactical decisions, he says, the war became fully planned and real around November 2013, when mass protests began in Kyiv. In addition, the expert notes, these protests took place under anti-Yanukovych slogans while simultaneously echoing and amplifying the anti-Russian messages heard back in 2004.

“Therefore, the tactical turning point for me is 2013, and the strategic one is 1994. The year 1994 created the conditions that made this catastrophe possible, and 2013 triggered the sequence of events that led to the annexation of Crimea and then to the war,” Bortnyk emphasizes.

The expert also notes that referring to 1994 does not mean that if Ukraine had kept its nuclear weapons, it would have struck Moscow with them and no one would have attacked us. As he explains, the point is that Ukraine was left without a geopolitical status, without a developed course toward sovereignty and independence backed by the Black Sea Shipping Company, a large army, and nuclear weapons. All this, the expert states, made possible massive interference in Ukraine’s internal affairs by external actors who flooded the country with their agents and interests and split our political system.

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