Renouncing NATO in exchange for guarantees: an expert explained how to avoid a new Budapest Memorandum

Political analyst and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko assessed whether Ukraine can abandon its path toward NATO in exchange for security guarantees, as Western media have been writing, Politeka reports.

He spoke about this on his blog.

“So, will we get a new Budapest Memorandum? No. In order for us not to get a new Budapest Memorandum, we certainly need to start with the legal component. The Budapest Memorandum was not ratified by Congress. Our task is to reach the point where a security treaty is not only signed by the U.S. president, but also ratified by Congress, so that it is granted legitimacy,” Oleksandr Musiienko argues.

According to the expert, this treaty should provide for funding and the supply of air defense systems and weapons to Ukraine not only in the event of renewed aggression by Russia, but in general. This, he says, is Ukraine’s key objective in the current peace talks.

“European countries are still waiting for the green light from Washington. They are waiting for the U.S. president to make the relevant decisions and are guided by those decisions. As soon as they are made, I think not the entire EU, but the majority of European countries will adopt the appropriate decisions allowing for the deployment of their military missions and contingents on Ukrainian territory, of course with the relevant weapons systems. This is our goal—so that these security guarantees truly differ and do not repeat the experience of the Budapest Memorandum. There is a clear understanding of this, but it requires a green light from the United States. We’ll see,” Oleksandr Musiienko explains.

Thus, the expert asserts, we are effectively acknowledging that NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine and presenting this as a concession. At the same time, Western partners, he emphasizes, see that Ukraine is acting consistently in the negotiation process and is ready to make concessions; this is perceived as a constructive position—something that cannot be said about Russia. Nevertheless, the main issue remains territories, and here the United States will apply pressure.

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