“The Chances of Ending the War Are Around 70%”: An Expert Gives a Realistic Forecast

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained that predictions about a rapid end to the war lack solid arguments, which is why they do not come true. According to him, there will be no peace this year, and Ukraine and Russia may still continue fighting, Politeka reports.

He spoke about this on his blog.

“I don’t know. A full-fledged peace in the near future, in the coming year, is unfortunately, in my view, not the main trend, not the most likely scenario. The chances for peace remain, but they are relatively around 25–30%. There is a greater likelihood that, unfortunately, the war will continue for now. The forces are not exhausted; the sides can still fight and are receiving massive external support. The causes of the crises have not been resolved—neither internal, nor regional, nor continental, nor global. Why should this war stop?” Ruslan Bortnik explains.

By the way, the expert reminds us that a few days ago peace had already arrived—if one follows the prediction of Rabbi Kaminetsky. The problem, he notes, is that behind the scenes new and new dates for the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war are regularly voiced, because that is how human psychology works. Now, for example, he says, people are talking about March—because the negotiation process will end, spring will come, birds will sing, flowers will bloom. In other words, there is actually no real explanation, so there is no point in talking about specific dates.

“Traditionally, confrontations of this kind last on average one generation—about 30 years. Given that the acute phase of our confrontation began in 2013, the chances of ending the war are estimated at around 70% in the period from 2028 to 2030. We analyzed 200 parameters,” Ruslan Bortnik claims.

According to the expert, these are not bad prospects, just realistic ones. What is bad, he emphasizes, is deceiving oneself and living with a ‘postponed life’ syndrome—waiting for spring, for May 1, for January 15. Therefore, one must understand that this crisis will continue for a long time; there is no point in postponing anything—life must be lived now.

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