The Minsk Model of Ceasefire Monitoring Was Discussed, with Adjustments — Political Scientist on Talks in the UAE

Political scientist Ruslan Bortnyk spoke about the military issues discussed during the negotiations in Abu Dhabi and assessed whether this negotiating track might stall in the same way the Istanbul talks did, Politeka reports.

He discussed this in his blog.

According to the expert, the talks in Abu Dhabi saw a clash of two strategies. The Ukrainian strategy, he explains, is to deploy peacekeepers along the line of separation between the forces. The United States and Russia, meanwhile, are more inclined toward a monitoring mission: bases along the front line and aerial surveillance using drones. The expert also adds that the withdrawal of heavy weapons was discussed, but overall all of this would take place only after the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdraw from the Donetsk region, something Russia insists on.

“The establishment of a joint monitoring and control center was also discussed. Do you remember that during the implementation of the Minsk Agreements there was the JCCC — the Joint Center for Control and Coordination? Essentially, what was being discussed was the Minsk model of ensuring control over the ceasefire, but adjusted for the current technological realities of warfare, namely the dominance of drones,” Ruslan Bortnyk explains.

Overall, the expert notes, the sides worked through their scenarios, gained a better understanding of their opponent and their interests, but agreed on nothing except holding another meeting. In this context, he recalls last year’s talks in Istanbul, where the heads of the delegations were Umerov and Medinsky, and where political issues were also discussed in addition to military ones. That track stalled because the sides ran into disputes over territory and security guarantees, and no compromise was reached.

“We are now in a similar phase. We are discussing certain issues and scenarios, but as long as there are no political compromises and political concessions, all of this will also quickly — or somewhat later — reach a dead end,” Ruslan Bortnyk concludes.

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