We Are Facing a Nuclear Arms Race — Political Scientist on the Expiration of the New START Treaty

Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik explained what the expiration of the New START treaty between the United States and Russia on February 5 means, and assessed whether nuclear arms control can be renewed or whether the world is facing a global threat.

He spoke about this on his blog.

As the expert explains, the United States is in no hurry to sign a new agreement with Russia because, from a technological and economic standpoint, it can abandon this balance and outpace Russia. Currently, the U.S., he notes, has 1,550 warheads, but in ten years—speaking hypothetically—this number could reach 5,000, as the U.S. has greater production capacity than Russia.

“There are also a second and a third factor. The third factor is China. China currently has approximately 600 warheads and is not bound by this agreement. The United States demands and insists that Moscow force Beijing to become part of this agreement and limit its potential. China is categorically opposed. China says: ‘First I will catch up with you and surpass you, and then we’ll talk about limiting capabilities.’ This is a problem, because this treaty binds only Russia and the United States,” Ruslan Bortnik explains.

The fourth factor, the expert notes, is the United Kingdom and France, which are increasing and expanding their nuclear capabilities, especially since they have concluded a special military agreement between themselves. Moscow, he states, demands that the UK and France also be potentially included in this agreement, like China, but the United States says they already have too few warheads.

“And so there is a deadlock. There is a high probability that if Trump and Putin do not want to make a symbolic gesture and extend this agreement or conclude a new one, we will face a nuclear arms race. This will push countries such as China, the UK, and France to catch up with the leaders, and will encourage other countries to acquire nuclear weapons. After all, the practice of war and politics in recent years shows that only nuclear weapons serve as the sole fully sovereign guarantee of security,” Ruslan Bortnik concludes.
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