“Too difficult a conflict”: Expert assesses whether Trump and Xi could reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnyk spoke about whether China is preparing for a war against Taiwan, as it urges the United States not to supply weapons to the island, and assessed what Xi and Trump might be willing to trade, Politeka reports.

He discussed this on his blog.

“First and foremost, money. In addition to that, Venezuela, Iran, and similar hotspots. Venezuela and Iran are key Chinese partners that are not Russia. Oil was flowing there. And China still feels weakness in parts of its military. That is precisely why, in Venezuela, the bet was placed on the Cubans, and in Iran—on the Russians. They constitute, so to speak, the main expert component maintaining the framework and security regime in these countries,” Ruslan Bortnyk reflects.

According to him, Xi Jinping is not yet confident in his own strength, especially given that the Chinese army has no real combat experience. It has barely participated in peacekeeping exercises and has either not taken part in missions at all or has done so very rarely. Therefore, the expert concludes, for now there can only be economic exchanges and exchanges in spheres of influence.

“But I do not think that Russia or Ukraine can be elements of such a bargain today. It is too complex, too costly, too difficult a conflict, and the price of trading it is too high for China and the United States to reach an agreement right now. However, one cannot rule out a potential scenario in which Trump, Xi Jinping, and Putin do indeed try to divide spheres of influence in the world,” Ruslan Bortnyk explains.

On the other hand, the expert notes that his colleague recently returned from the White House and reported that the Trump administration is thinking less and less in terms of spheres of influence and more in terms of tactical decisions. As he explains, the United States is strengthening economically, politically, and militarily, so the initial desire for balancing that existed when Trump first came to power is fading. The U.S. president himself is more inclined to negotiate tactical steps rather than something large-scale.

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