Russia’s offensive plans for 2026–2027 are on the verge of collapse: expert assesses whether the Kremlin will agree to a ceasefire

Political expert and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko stated that Russia is unlikely to be able to implement its further war plans, and therefore Vladimir Putin is considering whether to agree to a ceasefire or continue fighting, Politeka reports.

He spoke about this on his blog.

According to the expert, citing the president, Ukraine has obtained Russia’s relevant plans: the capture of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, advances in the Zaporizhzhia region toward the city of Dnipro, and in the Odesa region — but there are insufficient forces to achieve these goals.

“I have said that at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, the enemy had plans and was concentrating forces to threaten Zaporizhzhia. The president has spoken about this as well. The goal is to break into defensive positions and develop an operational offensive. But the Armed Forces of Ukraine are disrupting these plans, particularly in the Oleksandriivsk and Huliaipole directions, where Territorial Defense brigades are also operating and continue to inflict significant losses on the enemy. Nine settlements have been liberated in the Oleksandriivsk direction. This was stated by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. In other words, there is active resistance to Russia’s plans. And when you are well informed, when you understand and see how the enemy will act, you build your defense accordingly,” Oleksandr Musiienko commented.

As the president noted, the expert continues, the offensive that Russian forces had planned for the spring of 2026 depended on achieving their objectives in 2025, but all these plans have nothing to do with reality. He added that the president does not know whether there will be an offensive in the spring or where it might take place, but Russia lacks sufficient forces, and everything depends on contract recruitment; no mobilization is planned.

“We are now effectively at a crossroads in terms of the enemy’s actions. The fact that Vladimir Putin is not commenting in any way on the negotiations may indicate that he is essentially weighing what to do next: whether to launch at least a major spring–summer offensive campaign or, within the framework of the negotiation process, to agree on a ceasefire or truce. The available data that can be assessed point precisely to this. As of now, it is most likely that Vladimir Putin has not yet made a final decision,” Oleksandr Musiienko concluded.

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