“Escalation often comes before de-escalation”: an expert assessed when real peace negotiations may begin

Military expert Oleg Starikov stated that the front has reached a positional stalemate, and Russia will have to either carry out mobilization or move to negotiations, as breakthroughs are unlikely, Politeka reports. He said this on his channel.

According to the expert, the situation on the front has developed in such a way that neither side can advance or achieve improvements even at the tactical level, let alone the operational level. Three weeks ago, he recalls, OSINT analysts were reporting advances of 50 km, then 30 km, and now 6 km—literally a single step—so the front has effectively stalled.

“This leads to a reduction in the likelihood of escalation in combat operations along the line of contact. Let me say right away: if anyone thinks the shooting will stop, no—but there will be gradual de-escalation,” Starikov claims.

He states that neither side can win the Russian-Ukrainian war by military means on the battlefield, because the available methods of armed struggle do not allow it. A breakthrough, in the classical military sense—reaching operational depth and encircling the enemy—is not possible. According to the expert, the Kremlin understands that to achieve the goals set by the top political leadership, it would need to mobilize up to one million people; otherwise, the war would have to continue until 2030. However, plans are only laid out until 2026, so by August there will be de-escalation, also due to elections in the United States.

“You may ask me whether escalation is possible. It is—but escalation often precedes de-escalation. They may hit their heads against the wall, but will still move to negotiations. It is impossible to resolve the problems that led to the Russian-Ukrainian war—when they treacherously attacked us—by military means,” Oleg Starikov concluded.

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