Silent battle: an expert explained why Belarus is building roads to the Ukrainian border

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnyk explained what is behind the escalation in rhetoric between Belarus and Ukraine, and assessed whether Russian troops are действительно preparing to advance on Kyiv again through the Belarusian border. He shared his views on his blog.

“The Russian army currently lacks the forces for such an invasion; it does not have the capacity to allocate a couple hundred thousand troops to move on Kyiv again through the Belarusian border. I believe that the development of the border is linked to an ongoing quiet struggle in the field of drones. Remember the guidance stations, the stories about constant pressure and tension along the border? Intelligence services and special forces units are quietly operating there all the time. And since this border used to be completely unequipped, I do not rule out that Belarus is now actively fortifying it. I also do not rule out that at some point in the future, in a few years, this direction could again be used for a Russian invasion of Ukraine—but not now,” Ruslan Bortnyk explains.

In his opinion, the escalation around Belarus is linked to other factors. First, the expert notes, Lukashenko acts as a communicator between Putin and Trump; the United States has a special representative for Belarus; Belarus is involved in peace-related platforms; and U.S. sanctions are being lifted. In other words, he adds, Belarus is being viewed as an offshore zone between the West and Russia.

“Ukraine, together with Europe, is resisting the transformation of Belarus into a transit offshore zone for political communication and trade between the West and Russia. This is what drives the escalation in rhetoric. Of course, Belarus is an ally of Russia, and Russia actively uses its territory for intelligence operations against Ukraine, possibly even for targeting and other purposes. But the likelihood that Belarus will directly enter the war against Ukraine remains extremely low,” Ruslan Bortnyk claims.

As for Lukashenko’s indirect threat to have him kidnapped in the event of an attack, he notes that this is technically almost impossible. As the expert explains, the United States operated in a situation of an extremely corrupt regime in Venezuela and a degraded defense system; in Iran, however, this would not work—the U.S. got stuck there. On the other hand, dictators like Lukashenko, lacking internal threats, tend to take external threats very seriously.