Three Scenarios for the War’s Development: Expert Explains the Chances of Peace by the End of the Year

Military expert Oleg Starikov explained that, according to several possible scenarios, if mobilization is announced in Russia, the conflict could escalate and eventually transition into a low-intensity war by the end of the year, reports Politeka.

He discussed this on his channel.

According to the expert, there are several scientifically supported scenarios for how wars develop, and the Russian-Ukrainian war does not fall outside these patterns. Similar conflicts have occurred before—not necessarily between Russia and Ukraine, but on a comparable scale. These scenarios, he notes, include wars lasting 5 years, 8 years, 10 years, and longer.

“What intelligence indicators would confirm that the war is following the first, second, or third scenario? Again, what do military art, military practice, and military science tell us? If there is a summer escalation, the situation will move toward the conclusion of the war. In other words, the war would end before the end of the year,” explains Oleg Starikov.

However, the expert emphasizes that he is referring specifically to the end of the war’s high- and medium-intensity phases. A low-intensity conflict could continue even if the parties return to negotiations.

According to him, this would be similar to the situation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran: negotiations may continue, yet limited military actions could still occur. Nevertheless, the expert believes that the Russian-Ukrainian war is currently heading toward escalation, and both sides are preparing for it.

“What would actually happen if everything follows the first scenario? The probability of mobilization or partial mobilization in the Russian Federation would be high. That would also be an intelligence indicator. If partial mobilization takes place, it would mean that the war is moving toward a conclusion this year,” concludes Oleg Starikov.

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