"Global blackmail game": expert reveals what's happening in peace talks
Political scientist Ruslan Bortnyk explained that peace is still far away, but the fact that for the first time in all the years of the war, the parties in the negotiation process are already fighting for specific proposals is important, Politeka reports.
He spoke about this in his blog.
On the one hand, the expert notes, Trump has recently been accused of putting pressure only on Ukraine, on the victim, on the other - we see that Washington does not satisfy all the Kremlin's desires and even puts a little pressure on Moscow.
"Currently, a global blackmail game is underway. Who will squeeze whom, who will intimidate whom, who will force whom to make big concessions, who will be able to sell virtual assets such as NATO membership or the ability to seize all of Ukraine? Russia currently does not have the opportunity to seize all of Ukraine, just as Ukraine does not have the opportunity to join NATO. But who will be able to sell virtual assets of this kind in exchange for real concessions? But the most important thing is that we are in a negotiation process that has not been there for all 3 years of the war. The parties are already fighting for specific provisions, specific norms,” Ruslan Bortnyk explains.
Yes, he states, the Kremlin assesses this process more coldly, even Lavrov recently repeated all the previous demands of the Russian Federation to Ukraine and the West. But, the expert believes, this is being done more to prevent the demobilization of the Russian army and Russian society, because the expectation of a quick peace will negatively affect the motivation to fight.
“But the probability of peace is not yet written in lead letters. According to our assessment, the probability of a peace agreement is around 10%, the probability of a ceasefire is about 30%. That is, there is still a high probability that hostilities in one format or another, in warm and hot ones, may continue,” Ruslan Bortnyk concludes.
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